Reduction of international sanctions against Iran and the signing of a comprehensive program of joint action in connection with Iran's nuclear program, it could mark the beginning of a new era with future opportunities for the aluminum industry in the region

Iran is investing on the development and updating of the country's basic infrastructure, investment opportunities in upstream and Downstream of this country. This will make the demand in power generation and distribution, buildings and transportation will increase. In the aftermath of the sanctions, Iran on rebuilding the country's infrastructure (in the field of transport, housing, construction, rail, water and ports) will focus. Without this basic infrastructure, it would be difficult for Iran to its objectives

Iran in 2015, the capacity of 487 thousand tons, 357 thousand tons of aluminum in Bandar Abbas, Arak Hormozal and produced. A total aluminum production capacity in 2020 will reach about one million tons per year. According to a twenty-year perspective plan (Vision 2025) is due to the country's aluminum production capacity to at least one and a half million tons per year

In 2014, consumption of primary aluminum in Iran and about three hundred thousand tons per capita consumption of aluminum in Iran (with a population of 79 million people and a per capita GDP of $ 5353 in America in 2014) was about 3.8 kg. Based on 2025 prospects and development projects in the aluminum industry, is expected this figure to more than 580 thousand tons in 2020 (7 kg per capita and a population of 83/4 million) and 900 thousand tons in 2025 (per capita 10 / 8 kg and 86/5 million) is reached. This means that aluminum demand growth of 10% compound annual growth rate over the next five years is expected. These are stimulants that Iran will be one of the fastest growing markets are in aluminum matrix converter

Now, Iran is one of the exporters and importers of billet aluminum alloys. Recent data suggests that Iran's trade in bullion in 2014, 135 thousand tons and 182 thousand tons is exported. Although primary aluminum production plants are located in southern and central Iran, most producers are located downstream in the north and center of the country. It seems that the cost of transport of plants and Hormozal Mahdi (via Bandar Abbas) to northern Iran compared with its exports less attractive. The geographical features special opportunity for those suppliers that are able to access via the Caspian Sea to the Iranian market, creates (not only bars but also higher value-added products)

Billet demand is the most value-added production of aluminum in Iran. Extrusion downstream industries with the largest shares up more than 50 percent.

building industry

In terms of end-use industries, the building and construction sector is currently the largest consumer of downstream aluminum products in Iran. Annual production of approximately one and a half million housing units needed in Iran is now 700 thousand units can be built successfully. Rusal expects aluminum demand growth in the construction sector has a large share in Iran

Car industry

Iran auto industry in the country's second largest industry after oil and gas industry and 10% of GDP is allocated. Iran has traditionally been a high-volume car market and has led to the country's geographical advantage as a manufacturing center in the Middle East. Produces the most cars in Iran can be traced back to 2011, which this year one million six hundred and forty-nine thousand cars were produced

Vehicle production in Iran

At present, the capacity of the auto industry in Iran is estimated to be two million car manufacturer is composed of 18 companies (public and private). . Obviously the Iranian auto industry demand for aluminum from aluminum rims to the production of car body, would be effective

Power industry

Iran's electricity industry has experienced significant developments in the past two decades through the growing domestic demand, rapid industrial growth and the desire to export electricity answer. Is

Iranian electricity market during the past 10 years combined growth rate of 6.5 per cent growth over GDP (3 percent). The annual market development needs 5,000 MW of additional capacity through upgrades and new investment in electricity transmission and distribution network

In order to support industrial growth, Iran needs massive investment in manufacturing and electricity transmission lines which will be very promising from the standpoint of aluminum demand

Packaging and consumer goods

Due to the higher than average level of income in Iran is, after the lifting of international sanctions, internal market consumer goods will face more opportunities. Iran's demographics will support this growth in consumption, because the average age in Iran is 27 years and 43 percent of the population is under 25 years. It is predicted that by 2020 the population of 83/4 million and Iran is the second largest market in the Middle East and North Africa will become expendable. Increase the working population and per capita income Iranians significant growth in aluminum consumption will be particularly packaging and consumer goods

Conclusion

International sanctions could be significant opportunities for growth in aluminum demand in Iran are, however significant investment is needed to accomplish this. This is despite the fact that investment in the upstream aluminum industry in Iran is growing with the arrival of companies like Salkv. In addition to the downstream aluminum industry's need for increased capacity to meet the growing hereby downstream demand, particularly in the consumer sector is final. Meanwhile, analysts, manufacturers and domestic investors in Iran's intention to capitalize on downstream equipment upgrades are made in three to five years

By Aegna Symonenko, head of business intelligence Rusal

 


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